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Showing posts with the label bitcoin options

3 reasons why Bitcoin's price is primed to hold the $30,000 level as support

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Bitcoin price has been showing weakness near the $30,000 level, but multiple data points highlight the fact that bears remain at a disadvantage. Bitcoin (BTC) price gave back some of its recent gains this week, but multiple data points suggest that $30,000 should hold as support going forward. Bitcoin remained within a narrow 4.3% range for the 15 days leading up to July 7. Despite the proximity of the $29,895 to $31,165 range, investors' sentiment was significantly impacted by an unsuccessful attempt to break above $31,400 on July 6. Trader’s tendency to overreact to short-term price movements rather than Bitcoin's year-to-date gains of 82% could be part of the reason for the short-term correction This same rationale applies to the events related to other cryptocurrencies. At the front of investors' minds are questions about whether the recent price gains were solely driven by multiple spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) requests. Other pressing developments inclu...

Why Bitcoin’s resistance to retesting the $25K support could be futile

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Bitcoin price continues to explore the lower regions of its trading range, but a drop to $25,000 seems nearly inevitable according to derivatives data. Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a narrow 3.4% range for the past three days after successfully defending the $25,500 support on June 10. In this time, investors’ attention has shifted to the macroeconomic area as the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on June 14. Cryptocurrencies might work independently from the traditional finance markets, but the cost of capital impacts almost every investor. Back in May, the Fed raised its benchmark interest rate to 5%–5.25%, the highest since 2007. All eyes will be on Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell media speech 30 minutes after the rate announcement as markets are pricing in 94% odds of a pause at the June meeting, based on the CME FedWatch tool. Crypto fears more than just a FOMC meeting The upcoming FOMC meeting isn’t the only concern for the economy, as the U.S. Treasu...

$1.12B in Bitcoin options expire this week, and bulls appear to be at a disadvantage

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Commodities rallied as the U.S. Treasury struggled with the banking crisis, but Bitcoin bulls also overplayed their hand in this week’s options expiry. Bitcoin's (BTC) 43% rally between March 10 and March 20 surprised options traders and this is proven by the minimal14% of the $1.12 billion open interest set to expire on April 7 being placed at $28,000 and higher.  The positive price movement can be partially attributed to an increase in commodity demand, as investors perceive risks in the central bank's emergency funding programs, as injecting liquidity causes inflationary upward pressure. According to Urban Angehrn, CEO of the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA), if Credit Suisse had not been rescued, "many other Swiss banks would probably have faced a run on deposits." Angehrn added that, "there was a high probability that the resolution of a global systemically important bank would have led to contagion effects and jeopardized financial stab...

Bitcoin Santa Claus rally, unlikely according to on-chain and derivatives data

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Data suggests that BTC’s rally to $18,300 is the only Santa Claus rally Bitcoin will see before the year ends. As the coldest days of the crypto winter set in, investors’ speculative interest in the crypto market has fallen to pre-2021 levels, impairing the chance of a substantial directional price move. However, there’s a possibility of a bear market rally akin to the July through August 2022 uptrend. The market enters a state of limbo The FTX implosion impacted over 5 million users globally and adversely affected numerous crypto companies that were exposed to it. The industry is currently in a recovery mode and Cumberland, a U.S.-based crypto market broker, recently echoed this narrative in a tweet. The firm noted that "dozens of crypto companies are either severely curtailed or out of business, and the industry's future is as cloudy as ever." Data suggests that building a sustainable bullish move will be challenging because the market is pushed back to a low liquidit...